A Million EVs by 2015? Don’t Bet Your Life (Economy) on It

President Obama, in his 2011 State of the Union address, set a goal of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015. The aim is to build U.S. leadership in technologies that reduce dependence on oil, enhance environmental stewardship, and promote transportation sustainability, while creating high quality jobs and economic growth. The million EVs would include plug-in hybrids, extended range electric vehicles, and all-electric vehicles.

To reach this goal, President Obama has proposed a new three-part plan to further support EV manufacturing and enhance adoption. This includes revised tax incentives plus greater research and development, investments, and programs to encourage communities to invest in infrastructure for EVs.

The current $7,500 tax credit would be made more attractive by offering it at point-of-sale rather than requiring a wait until the end of the year. Investments in R&D for electric drive, batteries, and energy storage technologies would be increased. Communities investing in infrastructure through competitive grants and the removal of regulatory barriers would be rewarded

An Environmental Protection Agency report, ‘One Million Electric Vehicles by 2015,’ concludes that this goal is within reach in terms of production capacity. However, initial cost, unfamiliarity with the technology, and infrastructure limitations – very real potential barriers to achieving a large-scale market for EVs – are not considered.

According to EPA, there is substantial consumer interest in EVs, as demonstrated by the larger-than-anticipated pre-orders for the Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Volt. Whether this interest translates into sales beyond the initial ‘early adopters’ who embrace new and innovative products will depend on initial consumer experience with these early vehicles, and on how experiences are communicated to, and perceived by, the rest of the car buying public. Important unresolved issues include resale value, range, and availability of convenient charging facilities.

In related action, President Obama's proposed federal budget cuts all funding for clean diesel and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle research. The $80 million in funding would probably be shifted to EV-related incentives and R&D.

ANALYSIS

The projection of a million EVs by 2015 is based on the ability to build electric cars rather the more difficult job of selling them. What’s eye-opening is that the basis for projected production numbers is information sourced from EV manufacturers and media reports, and media typically get this information from the manufacturers. It is not from any real market analysis showing how many EVs people will actually buy.

While projected Volt and Leaf numbers are likely achievable, estimated sales of 231,000 electric cars from a company that few people have heard about, and has yet to sell its first unit, raises questions. And will 57,000 buyers really opt for a tiny city car – also from a relatively unknown manufacturer – at $34,000 a copy, or even $26,500 after the tax incentive? How about another projected 55,000 unit sales of an electric model that is not yet on sale? All three of these optimistic scenarios, representing more than a third of a million units, are included in the Administration’s projections.

By proposing to cut funding for clean diesel and fuel cells to zero in favor of EVs, President Obama is essentially saying we don't need oil any more now that we have electric cars. By this, the government in reality is picking market winners and losers based on very limited experience.

Cutting fuel cell funding might be prudent in today's austere environment, but cutting diesel funding is not. While electric trucks and buses may be suitable for shorter routes and intracity duty, diesels will probably always be required for long haul trucks and intercity buses. Also, there would be no funding programs for retrofitting buses and trucks with clean diesel technology that is producing results today. And consider: About 50% of the cars sold in Europe and 70% in France are diesels, Do they know something we don't?

Fuel Economy is Key to the Automobile’s Future

There’s a great new commercial, called ‘Imported from Detroit,’ that debuted at the Super Bowl. It’s about re-birth of one of the toughest cities in America. It’s about American innovation. It’s about American automakers leading, not following. It’s an inspiring piece of advertisement.

And thanks to tougher pollution and fuel economy standards, American automakers are not just making world beating, competitive products, they are doing fuel economy. And they are doing it well: Ford and GM have cars that get 40 mpg and are on the cutting edge on electric vehicles. And just in time. With gasoline prices pushing $4/gallon, consumers are flocking to fuel-efficient cars, shunning SUVs, and snatching up hybrids.

High, volatile oil prices killed Detroit’s market share during the previous three oil shocks during the 70’s, 80’s, and in 2008. Detroit has learned a hard lesson. Fuel efficiency is not a virtue; it’s a matter of survival.

Thanks to California, the 2007 Congress, the Supreme Court, President Bush, and President Obama, we have tougher pollution and fuel economy standards in place. And because of their leadership, Detroit is poised to lead, not follow, the world’s auto industry.

The biggest winners from stronger pollution and fuel economy standards? Perhaps ironically, Detroit. GM and Ford not only have more competitive small cars, but hot-selling crossovers such as the Chevrolet Equinox and Ford Edge, and cutting edge electric vehicles like the GM Volt and the Ford Focus EV.

The job is not finished, of course. California and President Obama have the opportunity to ensure Detroit remains on its path to rebirth by partnering on the next round of the National Program. Tough, but achievable, pollution and fuel economy standards that deliver 60 mpg by 2025 are what’s necessary to ensure Detroit is an innovator and global leader on clean cars.

60 mpg. Do it to for national security. Do it to lead the world. Do it for our future.

Ford’s 2012 Focus ECOnetic to Achieve an Exceptional 67 MPG

Ford claims that its Focus ECOnetic will be more fuel efficient than any other compact vehicle on European roads today, including hybrids, when it goes on sale in the UK in early 2012. It is expected to get 67 mpg (3.5 liters/100 km) on the European Fuel Economy Directive cycle. The Focus ECOnetic is also expected to deliver ultra-low CO2 emissions of less than 95 grams/km. It will be available in either five-door or station wagon versions.

The Focus ECOnetic is powered by a new 104 horsepower version of the 1.6-litre Ford Duratorq TDCi diesel optimized for fuel economy and CO2 emissions. The Ford Focus 1.6 TDCi already on sale gets 56 mpg and emits 109 grams/km of CO2. The ECOnetic diesel is mated with Ford's six-speed Durashift manual transmission, a totally new high-efficiency design with reduced friction losses that also uses a special low friction transmission fluid. A higher final drive ratio reduces engine speed and offers better fuel economy when cruising in high gear.

The diesel's common-rail fuel injection system has been redesigned for more precise control and increased combustion efficiency. An enhanced charge air cooling system, with a water-cooled intercooler replacing the standard air-to-air system, delivers a cooler, denser air charge. Other features that help achieve better fuel economy include a new variable geometry turbocharger, low-friction piston ring coatings, variable flow oil pump, low inertia vacuum pump, asymmetric crank sprocket design, and low friction engine oil. The updated emissions system combines a diesel NOx-reducing catalyst with a coated diesel particulate filter system.

Other advanced technologies are at work. The Focus ECOnetic is really a mild hybrid with Auto-Start-Stop and Smart Regenerative Charging. Indeed, these features are already available on all the new Focus models and include Ford Eco Mode and Shift Indicator Light driver information systems. In addition, the Focus ECOnetic uses electric power assisted steering, low tension front end accessory drive, and a thermal management systems to optimize warm-up.

Improved aerodynamics also help increase fuel economy. The all-new Focus already has low drag, with the five-door offering a drag coefficient of 0.295. The ECOnetic model has many additional features to further reduce drag,

For example, the standard active grille shutter with vents that controls airflow through the grille to the cooling system and engine compartment can reduce CO2 emissions by two percent. If engine cooling air is required, the vents are opened, and if no airflow is needed the vents are shut to significantly reducing drag. Much work was done to smooth airflow beneath the vehicle as well. Ultra-low rolling resistance tires are also mounted on wheels with low-drag wheel covers.

Honda FCX Clarity Zero Emissions Fuel Cell Car

Did you think you wouldn't see fuel cell vehicles and the realization of zero emissions hydrogen power in your lifetime? The hydrogen reality may be closer than you've hoped. Honda, the quiet technical innovator, will be leasing its FCX Clarity production fuel cell car to select customers much sooner than expected. Like the EV Plus electric car and the first-generation FCX fuel cell vehicle that came before it, this is a limited production vehicle that's manufactured like other Honda vehicles, but not yet in mass market volume. Even so, this is clearly a next step toward commercializing an advanced technology vehicle and a milestone in our path to a more environmentally compatible future.

An evolution of Honda's tireless efforts in zero emission electric drive vehicles, the FCX Clarity blows the smoke and mirrors off the futuristic concept and engineering vehicles shown on sci-fi pages and instead presents a sleek, stylish, and decidedly Main Street America sedan powered by "tomorrow's" clean fuel: hydrogen. In this case hydrogen combines with atmospheric oxygen in the Clarity's advanced fuel cell, converting chemical energy into electricity to power the sophisticated electric powertrain.

Moving beyond fleet testing under relatively controlled conditions, in a few short months the Clarity will be delivered into the hands of regular consumers. For $600 monthly, a lucky group of forward thinkers in Southern California will be able to lease an FCX Clarity fuel cell sedan for three years. The deal gets sweeter, too, since that six-hundred also includes collision insurance and maintenance. Honda obviously wants to keep close tabs on consumer interaction with the Clarity as part of the development process.

The Clarity is not a baby step in the production-ready consumer fuel cell evolution, but rather one giant leap. Honda's new V Flow fuel cell stack pushes technology boundaries on every level. The vertically oriented V Flow stack is 65 percent smaller than the Honda FC fuel cell stack it replaces. Its compact size allows the V Flow to be positioned in the center tunnel between the front seats. The entire powertrain packaging is 45 percent smaller than the previous generation, which Honda points out is equivalent to the space required for a modern gasoline-electric hybrid powertrain.

Small but mighty, V Flow delivers 100 kilowatts of output compared to the 86 kW produced by the current FC stack and also offers a 50 percent increase in output density by volume. Clarity employs an advanced lithium-ion battery pack that is also 50 percent smaller and 40 percent lighter than the ultra-capacitor design used in the current FCX. Packaging of the entire powertrain benefits from the V Flow design, which allows Honda to engineer the Clarity as a sporty and very functional sedan.

On the road, Clarity provides performance improvements over the previous FCX as well. Part of this is comes from a 400 pound weight reduction realized by the V Flow platform, which brings a 25 percent improvement in overall power-to-weight ratio. Fuel economy is said to be 20 percent better, which Honda estimates to be the equivalent of 68 mpg for combined city/highway driving. With a single 5,000 psi hydrogen storage tank, Clarity has an estimated range of 270 miles, a 30 percent increase over the current FCX and a driving range that's likely to be acceptable to consumers.

Honda will begin limited retail marketing of the FCX Clarity in the summer of 2008 in Southern California. Alongside further development of the car and fueling infrastructure, Honda is working on a service system that provides customer convenience while allowing Honda to track the ownership experience. When service is required, a customer simply drops off the Clarity at the nearest Honda dealership and American Honda transports the vehicle to its Los Angeles area service facility. Here, qualified technicians handle the needed work and then the vehicle is delivered back to the customer's local dealership for pick-up.

Honda is relentless in moving fuel cell technology forward. Real-world tests in small fleets are one avenue to proving the viability of advanced technology vehicles. In this case, Honda goes some steps further because the FCX Clarity is a limited production car that's going to regular consumers. It's a bold move and Honda will surely benefit from the program as much as the Southern California drivers lucky enough to lease the Clarity for three years.

When you look at the Clarity, it's difficult not to imagine you're taking a sneak peek at an Accord of the future. This stylish four door sedan represents a major milestone in design, fuel cell development, and the future of zero emission hydrogen as an important fuel alternative. We're breathlessly awaiting the next development in this hydrogen car's drive to the mass market.

BMW GINA

The GINA Light Visionary Model is a fabric-skinned shape-shifting sports car concept built by BMW. GINA stands for "Geometry and functions In 'N' Adaptations". It was designed by a team led by BMW’s head of design, Chris Bangle, who says GINA allowed his team to "challenge existing principles and conventional processes." Other designers include Anders Warming.
The construction began in 2001.